According to the Gartner Scenario Planning Framework, what is the first step in developing an effective scenario planning strategy?

The first step in developing an effective scenario planning strategy, according to the Gartner Scenario Planning Framework, is to define the focal issue that the scenario planning will address. This step is crucial because it sets the stage for the entire scenario planning process. By clearly identifying the central question or issue that needs to be explored, organizations can focus their research and analysis on relevant factors that will impact their future.

Defining the focal issue ensures that all subsequent steps in scenario planning are aligned with the specific challenges or opportunities that an organization anticipates facing. This clarity helps to narrow down the scope of analysis and facilitates deeper insights into how various future scenarios might unfold in relation to that particular issue. Without a well-defined focal issue, scenario planning might lead to a broad and unfocused exploration of possibilities, making it challenging to draw actionable conclusions or develop strategic responses.